With real sales growth near zero, Forrester says retention, differentiation and content will matter more than ad spend, including in answer engines.

Retail marketers should plan for a lean marketing budget, limit promotions and activate their current shoppers as a blueprint for success, according to Forrester Research’s recently released “Predictions 2027: Retail” report.

The research firm says real U.S. retail sales growth will be near 0% in 2027. Sales may increase by a small single-digit percentage, but the increase will likely be lower than inflation, Forrester predicts.

Consumers will continue to feel economic pressure and will be even more price-conscious because of higher living costs. They will trade down and switch to private-label goods. In fact, 65% of U.S. online adults are buying more private-label goods than they were a year ago, according to a Forrester survey.

That means retail marketers should focus on their customer retention strategies, such as email and text marketing, Forrester suggests.

Marketers Should Focus on the Brand’s Value Proposition

The firm also recommends that retailers have a “defensible value proposition in a narrower arena” to compete with the major merchants — Amazon, Walmart and Costco. For example, retailers should offer unique products, services and merchandising displays to attract and retain shoppers.

“Trying to match the formidable behemoths feature for feature is a losing proposition,” according to the report.

Forrester predicts that those three mass merchants will have a combined annual gross merchandise value of nearly $2 trillion in 2027. In a tough economy, consumers will turn to these merchants even more for their low prices, and these retailers will continue to gain share, Forrester predicts.

Another outcome of a tight economy is that shoppers will be more willing to buy used goods. This is further fueled by consumers becoming more conscious of wasteful consumption and by the agentic platforms’ ability to scale the product information needed for single SKUs.

Forrester predicts that marketplace eBay will double its growth because of these factors. The firm suggests all other retailers invest in ways to extend the life span of their products, such as operating their own resale platforms for branded merchandise, as Patagonia does, or offering product repair, as Levi’s and LVMH currently do. Already, a quarter of online U.S. adults say they regularly purchase secondhand goods, according to a Forrester survey.

How Agentic AI Will Continue to Transform Retail in 2027

Agentic AI will continue to disrupt shopping patterns in 2027 in multiple ways.

In Forrester’s “Predictions 2027: Digital Commerce” report, the firm predicts that 5% of U.S. and U.K. consumers will abandon traditional shopping in favor of agentic conversations. Early adopters, many of whom are Gen Z, will move their commodity purchasing to AI agents that will look for the best time and price for these goods.

Retailers with many Gen Z or tech-adopter customers should prioritize building automated shopping and buying capabilities, Forrester recommends.

Still, many consumers are wary of purchasing through AI platforms and are using them for product discovery rather than to buy. In fact, 75% of U.S. and U.K. consumers said they were uncomfortable with AI agents making purchases because they fear errors and worry about data security and privacy, according to a Forrester survey.

Meanwhile, Forrester predicts one in three commerce service providers will create an agentic commerce platform with the proper protocols and guardrails for payments and security. Merchants should evaluate which vendors would make sense for their business and would foster human trust.

Brands Need to Invest in Content, Not Ads

Currently, AI agents within the larger chat platforms are limited in their ability to complete purchases because online retailing is complex and retailers may not share real-time information on prices, inventory, loyalty programs and sales tax with those agents. This complexity was spotlighted when OpenAI discontinued ChatGPT’s Instant Checkout feature in March 2026.

Forrester predicts agentic AI chat platforms will shift their focus from product discovery to finding the best price. It also predicts that Google will acquire or integrate a product that specializes in finding deals for shoppers, starting with commodity goods like groceries.

This could lead to a “race to the bottom” on price, and marketers who sell commodities should look to innovate with their products or packaging, Forrester recommends.

The firm also recommends that brands tap the brakes on purchasing ads within answer engines because not many brands or the platforms themselves have proven a return on investment.

Instead, Forrester recommends that brands invest in content. According to Forrester, ChatGPT is referring 30% of traffic to just 10 sites (with Amazon the only commerce destination on that list).

Brands should also measure their online reputation beyond reviews on their own sites, use social listening and refresh content frequently.

“Find the leverage in targeted content that adapts to the audience to outperform the unproven costs of advertising in answer engines,” according to the report.